The topic of this paper arose out of the need to contribute, by means of an analytical context, to the concept of social exclusion which can help to ground the understanding of deprivation firmly in traditions of social science analyses. Specifically, the aim of this work is to investigate the phenomenon of social exclusion in terms of school drop-out in the U.S. socio-economic system and, in particular, we study how this phenomenon can be influenced by national economic situation, and by expenditure on public support to education in terms of public spending policies in the strict sense of the education and welfare policies to support families. Considering that our analysis is conducted on the long term, we believe that it may constitute a valid indication for the social policy maker. The analysis is also carried out on both the American national average overall, and the representative value of the three components of groups symbolic reference of population. Finally, we examine the phenomenon in question by using autoregressive models in order to highlight the systemic influence of the matter and try to understand the temporal condition of the variable school drop-out, by applying traditional ARMA models and comparing the same variable than a number of components representing the systemic determinants considered: economic growth rate, public spending, unemployment rate and children poverty rate, rate of variation of membership at different levels of education.

Social exclusion in terms of school drop-out in US: a time series analysis

BUCCIARELLI, EDGARDO;MATTOSCIO, Nicola;ODOARDI, IACOPO
2010-01-01

Abstract

The topic of this paper arose out of the need to contribute, by means of an analytical context, to the concept of social exclusion which can help to ground the understanding of deprivation firmly in traditions of social science analyses. Specifically, the aim of this work is to investigate the phenomenon of social exclusion in terms of school drop-out in the U.S. socio-economic system and, in particular, we study how this phenomenon can be influenced by national economic situation, and by expenditure on public support to education in terms of public spending policies in the strict sense of the education and welfare policies to support families. Considering that our analysis is conducted on the long term, we believe that it may constitute a valid indication for the social policy maker. The analysis is also carried out on both the American national average overall, and the representative value of the three components of groups symbolic reference of population. Finally, we examine the phenomenon in question by using autoregressive models in order to highlight the systemic influence of the matter and try to understand the temporal condition of the variable school drop-out, by applying traditional ARMA models and comparing the same variable than a number of components representing the systemic determinants considered: economic growth rate, public spending, unemployment rate and children poverty rate, rate of variation of membership at different levels of education.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11564/178393
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