The roots of a dual equilibrium: GDP, productivity, and structural change in the Italian regions in the long run (1871–2011)

The article presents updated estimates of GDP per capita, productivity and employment for Italy’s regions, at the NUTS II level and at current borders, for the whole economy and its three branches (agriculture, industry, services): they span 140 years in ten-year benchmarks (1871-2011). The Moran’s indices of spatial autocorrelation, measures of sigma and beta convergence, the Theil’s and the Hanna-Kim’s decompositions are computed and discussed. Four phases in the history of regional inequality are identified: mild divergence (the liberal age), strong divergence (the two world wars and Fascism), general convergence (the golden age) and the “two-Italies” tale (1971-2011). In the first two phases we observe the formation of three macro-areas; in the last decades, we record convergence within the Centre-North and thus an increasing North-South polarization, with differences in employment becoming more important than those in productivity. This result is in line with a socio-institutional interpretation of the North-South divide.