Desiderata stability. Methodological consideration

The "normative" scenario is distinguished from the "exploratory" scenario in that while the images of the future of the latter arise from the "trends" towards the future (and so are known as trend scenarios), the images of the first emerge from the survey of needs/desiderata of the stakeholders and/or citizens in general. Before reaching the timeframe of a normative scenario, usually in a long term period, events that change the opinions of citizens on the needs/desiderata may occur. In general, needs and desiderata are taken as "images" of the scenario and, therefore, as targets of public intervention. For this reason it may be that, particularly in the long term period, the started public interventions meet needs and desiderata no longer "relevant" to the stakeholders and/or citizens. To avoid this error, we thought to draw a simple control system for the "stability" of opinions in respect to the needs/desiderata, from which derive the images of the normative scenario or strategic objectives. Besides the usual methods for the implementation of scenarios, this work is based on panels and Markov chains. Assuming the use of a panel of end users, that are recipients of a long term policy, with the data collected it is possible to estimate a matrix of transition among the different levels of needs. The forward projection of the chain, that is obtained by successive powers of the matrix of transition, will help us understand whether the assessments on the needs and desired inserted in the normative scenario (that have become the goal of a policy) can be considered "stable", until the horizon of the scenario. Otherwise, we will lose the control on the normative future, pursuing strategic goals no longer shared.