Reducing seismic risk by understanding its cultural roots: inference from an Italian case history

The paper discusses how to approach the problem of the social mitigation of seismic risk, in order to reduce damage and grief consequent to earthquakes. An alert protocol, intended as a working hypothesis, is proposed basing on the experience gained from analysis of the behav-iour and social response to the threat before and after the great disaster of the L’Aquila earthquake on 6th April 2009. Authors propose a protocol addressing four levels of increasing alert based on signs of earthquake preparation and social concerns. In this sense, it works as an intensity scale and does not strictly relate to earthquake size (magnitude) or seismic hazard. The proposed alert protocol provides sensible measures for reducing vulnerability, which is the only factor that can be more or less effi-ciently controlled, based on structural and be-havioural adjustments. Factors indicating the difficult relationship between politicians, scien-tific community and citizens are considered: (1) a serious gap between researchers and citizens, (2) measures adopted by local administrators and the National Civil Protection Service not agreed by the population, (3) misunderstanding originating from a lack of clarity of communica-tion about scientific terminology, and (4) the lack of an alert procedure protocol. In the cur-rent situation, all these problems are crucial and contribute to the unpreparedness to face a seismic event, and thus greatly increase the risk. The adoption and implementation of an alert procedure protocol requires a preliminary assessment of the context and should be adapted to the local sensibility and culture. The application of a protocol may reduce the con-trasts between preventive measures and indi-vidual responsibilities, making mitigation measures more feasible and socially accept-able. In this paper, risk evaluation is not strictly related to probabilistic or deterministic predic-tions. In fact, this is a result of a project that comes from the general analysis of risk and is not intended to give an alternative hazard esti-mate method. This paper proposes an alert protocol addressing four levels of increasing alert based on signs of earthquake generating preparation and social concerns. In this sense, it works as an intensity scale and does not strictly relate to earthquake size (magnitude) or hazard. It provides sensible measures for re-ducing vulnerability, which is the only factor that can be more or less efficiently controlled, based on structural and behavioural adjust-ments. Finally, there is a suggestion on how to gradually communicate the threat and get citi-zens involved in the risk mitigation process.