Seismic vulnerability assessment of historic centers: description of a predictive method and application to the case study of scanno (Abruzzi, Italy)

In this article, a predictive model for the seismic vulnerability assessment of old Italian historic centers is presented through its direct application to a meaningful case study, the historic center of Scanno, in Abruzzi, Italy. The proposed method is calibrated on the basis of the observations carried out on similar historic centers hit by the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake and is applied in order to provide likely damage scenarios by means of fragility curves. The method is based on the evaluation of a limited number of structural and typological parameters that can be obtained by simple and rapid inspections on buildings. In addition, it is conceived in order to provide useful information on the most effective anti-seismic strategies to be implemented on urban scale for pursuing a global mitigation of the seismic risk and for the application of suitable risk reduction policies. The final aim of the article is to give an applicative vision of the method, by providing instructions on how to judge the features of the buildings that are influential on their seismic behavior, as well as by showing the potentiality of the method itself in providing likely damage scenarios, also with the support of GIS-based representations.