Can deindustrialisation be reversed? The role of outsourcing and foreign trade in the structural change of the main European economies (2010–20)

This article offers new empirical evidence on the deindustrialisation paths of the main European economies (Germany, Italy, France and Spain) from 2010 to 2020. Using a multi-country version of the subsystem approach with data from the Eurostat Figaro database, we examine the role of outsourcing and exports in changes in manufacturing employment. The findings reveal that although traditional sectoral analysis indicates deindustrialisation, the subsystem approach shows that the share of employment in manufacturing is stable or slightly increasing. This suggests that deindustrialisation is more ‘apparent’ than ‘real’. Our analysis also highlights that exports, particularly to non-European markets, have been the primary drivers of employment growth in the manufacturing subsystem. These insights demonstrate a potential trend towards re-industrialisation, driven by global market integration and increasing integration in the service sector with manufacturing value chains.